
Friday, November 7, 2008
Bank Owned Property New on the Market!

More from Leslie (and my 2 cents)
Facts & Forecast!
In looking over the numerous notes from Leslie Appleton-Young’s update (what else would you expect from an economist?), the main factors driving sales up in 2008 were:
Declining prices equaling improved affordability
Bargains equaling great deals and distressed sales
Favorable rates for qualified buyers such as found with FHA and VA loans (we saw a substantial increase in these types of loans this year)
First time buyers getting younger
Declining inventory in 2nd half of the year
More investors showing up
International buyers showing up
She also gave numbers for the sub-prime arm resets in 2008 and estimated for 2009 and 2010. I think this is where it gets interesting because this is a big factor in pulling down home values (resulting in numerous short sales and foreclosures). The average % to reset in 2008 was estimated at 44% but will go down to 17% in 2009 and 7% in 2010. I think this is very good news although it will need other factors in the economy to cooperate. However, it is a good sign.
Her forecast for 2009 includes a weak GDP through the second quarter of 2009 and an improved outlook in the second half of the year. She sees a weak job picture with the unemployment rate going up. Inflation will be a concern (duh!) but in check and we are likely to see a stimulus package in early 2009. Her critical concern is how soon will financial systems stabilize and enable economic activity to return to normal.
My 2 cents – It’s hard for me to separate my own joy at Obama being elected president but perhaps the folks who backed the republican way of thinking are feeling cautious about whether they will be getting the support they want (and are used to) from this upcoming administration. We are still in a wait and see situation until we all have a feel for how we will “play together”.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Leslie Appleton-Young speaks to Intero!
Most homeowners want to understand how the current housing situation affects them and the value of their home. Recently, Leslie Appleton-Young (the Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors) spoke at an all company meeting for Intero. I’m not going to review everything she said (which was substantial) but some of the highlights which might be helpful to put your own property in perspective.
First of all, we all know that home sales in California were a record high in 2004 and hit bottom in 2007 but have recovered somewhat in 2008. The median price of a home in California decreased in value by 44% between 2004 and 2007. No surprise here, consumer confidence has also greatly decreased during those years. However, sales of existing detached homes are up 12% over 2007. We see the biggest changes in sales in the price range under $500,000 (which actually has a 72% share of the current market)) and from $500,000 to $999,000, which has decreased in sales significantly (a little over 20% of the current market). The change in home prices over $1,000,000 is not as dramatic (consists of less than 10% of the market). The median price of existing detached homes is down 40.9% as of September 2008 and new housing permits are down 45.1% year to date.
The median price of existing detached homes in the Bay Area as of September 2008 is $554,730, down 29.2% year to date. The median time on the Bay Area market is 53.0 days with an unsold inventory index of 6.3 months. The median price of existing detached homes in Santa Clara County alone is down 29.0% year to date.
Closer to home, the median home sales price in Morgan Hill dropped 20.7% between August 2007 and August 2008 and in Gilroy dropped 37.4%.
I’ll have more tomorrow on the highlights of her housing market survey and predictions for the coming year.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Yes We Can!
I probably can't separate my political leanings from my excitement and pride towards my country. It was only four decades ago that we were spilling blood over civil rights. We made history last night when we elected our first black president. I was impressed listening to both McCain and Obama and heard their call for us to work together as a country. I could feel my hope grow as I listened to the words of Obama calling us to action and they brought back the words of Kennedy - "Ask what you can do for your country". I am so proud of us and hopeful for our future!
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Get Out There and Vote!
I imagine it would be hard to forget to vote today but just in case, today is the day! Go cast your votes and participate in our election process.
My husband and I stumbled upon an old tape of West Wing shows which we've been watching again. It used to be one of our favorite shows. It brings back to me that sometimes, we are a group of people agreeing to disagree and that's OK. Maybe that is more than OK. Maybe that is a lot of what we as Americans are about.
So let's all of us (not just the folks who agree with me) get out there and make a difference (and believe that you can)!
Monday, November 3, 2008
Weekly Statistic Update!
Monday Statistics
Good morning South County! Here are your weekly updates on what is happening in your neighborhoods. Feel free to contact me if you want more specific information. As of this week:
Morgan Hill has 287 active listings and 59 sale pendings
Gilroy has 353 active listings and 153 sale pendings
San Martin has 43 active listings and 9 sale pendings
Area 1 (all of the above) has 662 active listings and 220 sale pendings
We are down a little in inventory and sales compared to last week. For the month of October, there were 24 closed sales in Morgan Hill, 52 in Gilroy, 1 in San Martin and a total of 75 closed sales in South County.
Stay tuned for regular updates!
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Low Priced Bank Owned Property in Morgan Hill

